Will a Fed Interest Rate Cut Ignite the Next Bitcoin Bull Run? Share Your Predictions!

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BenRush

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The Fed is expected to cut rates at the next FOMC meeting. Historically, easier monetary policy boosts risk assets. Do you think a cut could spark the next crypto rise, especially for Bitcoin? Or is that already priced in? Curious to hear your takes — both bullish and bearish.
 
Every single cycle, liquidity drives Bitcoin. When the Fed prints or cuts rates, money flows into risk assets, and BTC is at the top of that list. In 2020, we saw how the combo of zero rates and QE created the rocket fuel that took Bitcoin from $8k to nearly $70k in just over a year.

Right now, inflation is easing but still not at target, so if Powell signals a sustained easing cycle, it could unleash a fresh wave of institutional and retail inflows. Remember, Bitcoin ETFs didn’t exist during past easing cycles — today we have billions in weekly ETF flows that can magnify any macro tailwind. For me, a dovish Fed = bitcoin price at new all-time highs.
 
Not so fast. Rate cuts often come because the economy is weakening, not because the Fed wants to make traders rich. If a cut signals slowing growth, corporate earnings could decline, unemployment might rise, and investors could go risk-off. That’s the problem: Bitcoin has behaved like a high-beta equity. When the S&P 500 sells off hard, BTC usually drops harder.

Also, let’s remember 2019: the Fed eased policy, but Bitcoin chopped sideways for months before resuming higher. Cuts didn’t immediately trigger a bull run. Same risk now — if we cut into a recessionary backdrop, it could take quarters before confidence returns.
 
There’s no denying Bitcoin trades like a crypto stock these days. CME and Glassnode both published reports showing correlations with tech indices near cycle highs earlier this year. When Nvidia and Apple pump, BTC often rides the wave.

But here’s the twist in 2025: ETF flows. BlackRock, Fidelity, and Ark 21Shares ETFs have become daily liquidity engines. For instance, last week we saw back-to-back $300M+ inflow days when the Fed minutes hinted at dovish bias. Add in whales moving coins off exchanges (supply shock building), and even a modest Fed pivot could fuel an outsized move. That’s why a bitcoin price prediction north of $120k this quarter isn’t unrealistic.
 
Quick facts: the Fed funds target range is 4.25%–4.50% right now, and a 25 bp cut is widely expected at the September meeting. Powell has hinted policy will “evolve as needed,” and NY Fed’s Williams confirmed cuts are appropriate if the outlook softens. Traders are already pricing 2–3 cuts by year-end, but the tone matters — one cut with hawkish guidance won’t have the same effect as Powell opening the door to a full easing cycle.
 
Let’s look back:
  • 2019: Fed cut rates 3 times, BTC climbed from ~$3.5k lows to $12k+, though it wasn’t a straight line.

  • 2020–2021: pandemic stimulus plus zero rates drove BTC to its ATH ~$69k. Every dovish Fed meeting acted like rocket fuel.

  • 2022: hikes to fight inflation killed liquidity → BTC collapsed to ~$15k.
So the pattern is clear: dovish Fed → bullish crypto; hawkish Fed → pain. The difference today is structural: ETFs + corporate treasuries = new demand sources. That makes the impact of cuts potentially bigger than in past cycles.
 
Thank you:love:! One thing I’m still not clear on — when the Fed cuts rates, how quickly does that usually show up in markets like Bitcoin? Is it more of an immediate reaction or something that plays out over several months?
 
BenRush said:
Thank you:love:! One thing I’m still not clear on — when the Fed cuts rates, how quickly does that usually show up in markets like Bitcoin? Is it more of an immediate reaction or something that plays out over several months?
Click to expand...
Great question. Usually you see a short-term knee-jerk reaction around the FOMC statement — BTC pumps or dumps depending on tone. But the bigger trend plays out over weeks or months as liquidity conditions filter through. In 2020, the real rally started months after the initial easing, once the liquidity made its way into risk markets.

So for bitcoin price, think in layers:
  • Immediate: volatility spike.

  • Medium-term: trend forms based on policy path.
Long-term: adoption + supply dynamics matter more than Fed timing.
 
But 2025 isn’t 2020 @HarrySі . Inflation is sticky, tariffs are still in play, and the Fed is trying to balance credibility with growth risks. If they cut too soon and inflation pops again, markets could panic. My bitcoin price prediction: knee-jerk pump on the cut, then range trading until CPI prints confirm inflation is under control🫤.
 
On-chain looks juicy. Large wallets (1k+ BTC) have been accumulating steadily since July. Glassnode shows exchange balances near 5-year lows. Combine that with ETF inflows and a liquidity boost from rate cuts, and supply could dry up fast. That’s the recipe for parabolic runs.

I’m watching $114k as the breakout level. If it cracks with volume, there’s almost no resistance above — $130k comes quick, and $150k is in sight. To me, that’s where the fomc crypto narrative turns into mainstream headlines: “Fed fuels Bitcoin’s biggest bull run ever.”🚀
 
Caution though. The current BTC price is already near all-time highs. If Powell only does 25 bps and sounds hawkish, the market might dump before it pumps. “Buy the rumor, sell the news” is a real risk. Remember March? Fed hinted dovish, BTC still dropped for a week before bouncing.
 
Cuts don’t just affect BTC. Lower yields on treasuries push money into alternatives — equities, yes, but also DeFi. A friend of mine manages a staking pool, and he swears every time bond yields drop, his deposits tick up. That’s the real fed crypto spillover: not just price, but usage of digital assets across ecosystems. Liquidity doesn’t care if it’s buying S&P futures, ETH staking derivatives, or meme coins — it just looks for higher returns.
 
Exactly @sunshine . Gold rallies every time real rates fall, and Bitcoin has been positioning itself as “digital gold.” With ETFs live, institutions can now treat BTC as a macro hedge. If gold climbs 10% on cuts, why not Bitcoin 30%? The scarcity narrative fits perfectly in a dovish cycle.
 
But let’s be real: sometimes the Fed cuts because something is breaking. If we get a “cut into crisis” — weak labor data, financial instability — then risk-off rules. BTC could dip hard with equities before recovering. Historically, when unemployment rises fast, BTC doesn’t immediately moon. My call: volatility is guaranteed, but direction depends on whether markets see the cut as “stimulus” or “panic.”
 
BenRush said:
Thank you:love:! One thing I’m still not clear on — when the Fed cuts rates, how quickly does that usually show up in markets like Bitcoin? Is it more of an immediate reaction or something that plays out over several months?
Click to expand...
The simplest way to put it: FOMC = volatility. Expect an immediate spike (maybe both directions), then retrace, then a real move once Powell talks. For most people here: don’t get shaken out by the first candles. Rate cuts usually boost liquidity, and in the medium term that’s bullish for Bitcoin. Just zoom out — we’re still in a long-term uptrend regardless of the intraday chop.
 
If BTC breaks out above the resistance zone around $112k–$115k with volume, altcoins will go nuts. Liquidity down the risk curve gets wild — we’ve seen this movie in 2017 and 2021. ETH, SOL, and meme coins often pump harder once BTC sets the tone. Personally, I think fomc crypto hype plus ETFs plus liquidity = full-blown bull cycle. My call: BTC $130k → ETH $12k → memecoins 10x. Don’t fade it. 🌚🚀
 
@BenRush Cuts don’t create bull markets, but they remove barriers. Adoption, ETFs, corporate holdings, on-chain supply squeeze — those are already in motion. If the Fed gives the green light with easier policy, it’s like taking the brakes off a car already revving. I’m not focused on the first 5% move after Powell, I’m focused on the 12–18 month trajectory. That’s where I see Bitcoin not just testing $120k but consolidating into a higher range that could define the next era of digital assets.
 
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